Who writes this research
I am Chiraag, an independent researcher covering global macro, liquidity, derivatives, and digital asset markets.
My work connects the forces that drive global markets: central bank policy, fiscal deficits, liquidity cycles, volatility structure, and the generational rhythms that shape institutions and investor behaviour. The scope is global markets broadly, with a particular focus on how macro conditions flow into digital assets, commodities, fixed income, and volatility.
How I Got Here
My path into markets was not the conventional one. I grew up in South Africa, where I started university studying Science. That was where I first encountered mathematics, computational methods, and applied mathematics in a rigorous way. The quantitative foundations I built there still underpin how I approach everything from data analysis to market modelling.
I later moved to Australia and studied Economics and Finance at RMIT University, which gave me the formal grounding in monetary systems, asset pricing, and portfolio theory that frames my macro work today. I am RG146 certified in General Advice for Financial Planning and Derivatives through Kaplan Professional, which anchors my work in the Australian regulatory framework.
I first came across Bitcoin in 2019, before the pandemic. What caught my attention was not price. It was a use case: cross-border remittances. Watching value move across borders quickly and cheaply, without a bank in the middle, made the technology click for me as a genuine solution to a real problem. I approached it as a curiosity and a use case first, and only became an active investor in 2020 once I understood the monetary argument underneath it.
During COVID, with time and curiosity, I taught myself to code. What started as a personal project became a lasting toolkit. Python, R, data pipelines, and automation are now central to how I conduct research and build models. That same period deepened my interest in derivatives. I took an early and eager interest in options and volatility, and pursued that through an academy called Predicting Alpha, led by J. Wrong, a volatility trader based in Canada who became my first real mentor in the space. That training shaped how I think about market structure, dealer positioning, gamma, and the flow dynamics that sit beneath price action.
The Path
First encountered mathematics, computational methods, and applied mathematics in a rigorous way.
Formal grounding in monetary systems, asset pricing, and portfolio theory. RG146 certified through Kaplan Professional.
Led research into South East Asian market expansion, building the analytical groundwork for entry into new regional markets.
Progressed through Analyst, Associate, Deputy Compliance Officer, and Head of Trading. A full-stack view of how a digital asset investment firm runs, from thesis to trade to reconciliation.
Led institutional distribution for a privacy-centric DeFi solution. A direct view into how institutional capital approaches on-chain infrastructure and the challenges of privacy in a surveilled financial system.
Macro and digital asset research, client analysis, educational content, and portfolio strategy for high-net-worth individuals, self-managed super funds, and family offices.
Alongside this, I have been active as a venture capital investor across the technology sector. Evaluating early-stage companies and watching how private technology valuations flow into and out of public markets has shaped how I think about liquidity, risk appetite, and the transmission of macro conditions into the real economy.
Approach
Four principles guide the research on this site.
First, liquidity leads. The single most important variable for risk assets globally is the availability and direction of global liquidity. Get that right and most other things fall into place.
Second, structure matters. Options flows, dealer positioning, and passive demand are not noise around fundamentals. They are a signal in their own right, and in the short to medium term they often matter more than the macro backdrop.
Third, incentives explain behaviour. Monetary systems, regulators, and market participants all respond to incentives. Understanding those incentives predicts outcomes better than reading headlines.
Fourth, independence matters. This research is not attached to a product, a token, or a fund. The only goal is to be right and to be useful.
Beyond the Work
I am based in Melbourne and grew up in South Africa. I support Arsenal, and after 22 years of waiting I finally have a Premier League title to talk about, which has made me significantly more insufferable on match days. Outside of markets I tutor mathematics, which keeps me honest about explaining complicated ideas in plain language. I keep a running theory that most macro takes improve when you ask whether David Dredge would actually trade them, and I have a weakness for a good spreadsheet.
If you would like to connect, find me on LinkedIn. If you would like to work together, here is how.