The desk, opened.
The public notes explain the frameworks. This is where the current readings live: the desk’s posture on liquidity and volatility, an interactive diagnostic that stress tests an allocation, and the deep dives too detailed for the open archive.
Three tools, one working sequence
Check the posture
Start with the Live Macro Desk. Sixty-four audited series across liquidity, real rates, curves, and the labour and inflation calendar, updating continuously rather than on a publishing schedule.
Stress test the allocation
Take the current portfolio into the Portfolio Diagnostic. Eight sliders, four gauges, and a set of regime stress tests show where an allocation is exposed before a regime shift finds it for you.
Go deep where it matters
If the diagnostic flags convexity, cross-asset construction, or liquidity reading as the weak point, the matching premium note below covers the mechanism in full, past what the free archive goes into.
Pulled from the NAX Capital Macro Dashboard, the same board I run the desk from. Sixty-four data series, audited on every refresh. Synced Jul 20, 2026, 12:32 desk time.
Net liquidity proxy $5.99T, expanded roughly $32.5B over the past three months. Per the global liquidity framework (Howell, CrossBorder Capital), liquidity tends to lead risk asset valuations by six to nine months. A strong dollar at 120.5 drains global dollar liquidity through the EM funding stress channel.
10y nominal 4.57% decomposes into real 2.35% plus breakeven 2.24%. Real rates do the actual tightening, at 2.35% this is the variable to watch for duration trades and gold. 5y5y forward inflation sits at 2.21%, modestly above the Fed’s 2% goal.
Latest NFP +57,000 jobs versus prior month. Initial jobless claims 208K, sustained moves above 350K have historically signalled recession. JOLTS openings 7.59M, the openings-to-unemployed ratio is the Fed’s preferred slack gauge. Headline CPI 3.73%, core 2.81%, the gap reflects energy and food contribution.
Portfolio Diagnostic
Enter your allocation and see how your portfolio is built: where the power is, where the brakes are, and how it behaves when the economic weather changes. A full race-car read across four economic regimes.
Open the Diagnostic →What is inside the portal
How members actually use the desk
Read the posture
Start with Desk Status. It sets the regime: where liquidity and volatility sit right now, in one glance.
Stress test your own numbers
Run the Portfolio Diagnostic against the current regime. See what the posture implies for an actual allocation.
Go deep where it matters
Use the premium notes for the mechanism behind the posture: convexity, all-weather structure, or the liquidity series itself.
Interactive tools
Hands-on diagnostics you can run against your own allocation, not static charts.
Premium deep-dives
Longer, more technical notes that go a level beyond the public archive.
Regime awareness
Notes updated as the macro regime shifts, so the framework stays current.
Premium Research Notes
Deeper deep-dives reserved for members, updated as regimes shift.
The Convexity Playbook
Building a portfolio that gains from disorder instead of merely surviving it.
- The Race Car Problem
- What Actually Provides Convexity
- Sizing the Convex Sleeve
- The Ongoing Cost
- Building It
The Three-Pillar Blueprint
An all-weather structure balancing growth, hard money, and real assets.
- The First Pillar: Growth
- The Second Pillar: Hard Money
- The Third Pillar: Real Assets
- Putting It Together
- The Trade-Offs
Reading the Liquidity Dashboard
The specific series to watch, and how to read a turn before it shows up in price.
- Central Bank Balance Sheets
- The Dollar Index
- Cross-Currency Basis Swaps
- Credit Spreads
- The Yield Curve and Term Premia
General information only. The tools and notes in this portal are educational and do not constitute personal financial advice.
What you get
| Free | Members | |
|---|---|---|
| All 51 public research notes | Included | Included |
| Insights quick digests | Included | Included |
| Live Desk Status dashboard | — | Included |
| Portfolio Diagnostic tool | — | Included |
| Premium deep dives (convexity, three-pillar, liquidity dashboard) | — | Included |
Common questions
What does it cost?
Nothing. The first fifty places on the desk are complimentary. There is no card required at registration and no charge at any point during your access.
Is this financial advice?
No. Everything on this site is research and education. It explains mechanisms and frameworks so you can make your own decisions. Nothing here considers your personal circumstances.
How often is the Desk Status updated?
Whenever the readings change materially, not on a fixed schedule. Regime shifts do not respect publishing calendars.
What if it is not for me?
Then leave. There is no charge and no lock-in, which means the research has to keep earning its place on its own merits. You can close your account from the account page at any time.
Full access. Complimentary.
The free notes explain the frameworks. The Members Desk shows the current readings: the live Desk Status dashboard, the Portfolio Diagnostic tool, and the premium deep dives on convexity, portfolio construction, and the liquidity dashboard. Access is complimentary for the first fifty members. Registration is required so that I know who is on the desk, and places are allocated in the order they are claimed.
No card required. No lock-in. No upsells. Everything is included.
Join the Members DeskResearch and education only. Nothing on this site is financial advice.