The Reserve Currency Clock and the Problem With Counting It
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 A frequently circulated chart shows a sequence of dominant currencies, Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch, French, British, and American, each holding
Debt Jubilees Are Older Than Debt Markets
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Recorded debt cancellation predates recorded interest rates. Mesopotamian rulers issued proclamations voiding agricultural debts at intervals,
Demographics Are Destiny, With a Forty-Year Lag
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 The number of people who will turn forty in 2065 is already fixed by the number of people born in 2025. This is close to the only variable in m
The Capex Supercycle and Why Underinvestment Shows Up a Decade Late
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Building a mine takes roughly a decade from discovery to first production. Building a refinery, a smelter, or major grid infrastructure operate
Dispersion: When the Index Is Calmer Than Its Parts
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 An index is a portfolio, and the volatility of a portfolio depends on the volatility of its holdings and on how those holdings move relative to
Skew Is a Positioning Signal, Not a Fear Gauge
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Implied volatility is not a single number. It varies by strike, and the shape of that variation carries information that the headline level doe
Zero-Day Options and the Argument About Intraday Volatility
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Options expiring on the day they are traded have grown from a curiosity to a substantial share of index options volume. The structural change i
Vanna and Charm: The Second-Order Flows That Move Markets Quietly
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Dealer gamma is now widely discussed, which means its informational edge has decayed. The second-order sensitivities behind it are still poorly
The Variance Risk Premium Is the Most Reliable Anomaly Nobody Talks About
3 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Across decades, across indices, and across most liquid single names, implied volatility has traded above the volatility that subsequently mater