Risk Builds in Calm, Not in Storms
4 min read · Updated Aug 2026 The largest events in financial history are usually described afterward as sudden. They rarely are. What is sudden is the resolution. The accum
The Reserve Currency Clock and the Problem With Counting It
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 A frequently circulated chart shows a sequence of dominant currencies, Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch, French, British, and American, each holding
Debt Jubilees Are Older Than Debt Markets
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Recorded debt cancellation predates recorded interest rates. Mesopotamian rulers issued proclamations voiding agricultural debts at intervals,
Demographics Are Destiny, With a Forty-Year Lag
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 The number of people who will turn forty in 2065 is already fixed by the number of people born in 2025. This is close to the only variable in m
The Capex Supercycle and Why Underinvestment Shows Up a Decade Late
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Building a mine takes roughly a decade from discovery to first production. Building a refinery, a smelter, or major grid infrastructure operate
The Pendulum Between Individualism and Institutions
Societies swing between eras that favour the individual and eras that rebuild collective institutions. Understanding where the pendulum sits tells you what kind of policies, market
Every Generation Thinks It Is Different. None of Them Are.
The feeling that the current era is unprecedented is itself a recurring phenomenon. History shows that societies move through predictable seasons of confidence, rebellion, decay, a
One Framework: How Liquidity, Convexity, Cycles, and Flows Fit Together
These lenses are not competing theories. They are layers of the same picture. Put them together and you get a coherent way to see markets in the current regime.
Why This Feels Like a Turning Point, Because It Is
History does not repeat, but it rhymes on a roughly eighty-year cycle. Neil Howe’s generational framework explains why the current era of institutional stress was, in a sense, on