Dispersion: When the Index Is Calmer Than Its Parts
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 An index is a portfolio, and the volatility of a portfolio depends on the volatility of its holdings and on how those holdings move relative to
Skew Is a Positioning Signal, Not a Fear Gauge
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Implied volatility is not a single number. It varies by strike, and the shape of that variation carries information that the headline level doe
Zero-Day Options and the Argument About Intraday Volatility
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Options expiring on the day they are traded have grown from a curiosity to a substantial share of index options volume. The structural change i
Vanna and Charm: The Second-Order Flows That Move Markets Quietly
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Dealer gamma is now widely discussed, which means its informational edge has decayed. The second-order sensitivities behind it are still poorly
The Variance Risk Premium Is the Most Reliable Anomaly Nobody Talks About
3 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Across decades, across indices, and across most liquid single names, implied volatility has traded above the volatility that subsequently mater
The Household Balance Sheet Is Short Volatility
4 min read · Updated Jul 2026 · Volatility & Flows Strip a household down to its cash flows and an uncomfortable structure appears. Income depends on employment,
The VIX Does Not Measure Fear. It Measures Insurance Prices.
The VIX is called the fear index, but that label is misleading. What the VIX actually measures is the price of options protection, and that price is driven by supply and demand, no
Gamma and the Hidden Hand That Moves Markets
Dealer gamma is one of the most powerful short-term forces in markets, yet most investors have never heard of it. Understanding gamma exposure explains why markets pin, drift, and
One Framework: How Liquidity, Convexity, Cycles, and Flows Fit Together
These lenses are not competing theories. They are layers of the same picture. Put them together and you get a coherent way to see markets in the current regime.
The Market Is a Flow Machine, and the Flows Have Changed
Prices are not just opinions about value. They are the residue of flows: options hedging, passive buying, and structural demand that must happen regardless of view. Cem Karsan’s