The Cash-Futures Basis Trade and the Leverage Underneath It
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Treasury futures and the underlying cash bonds are close substitutes, and their prices are linked by arbitrage. When futures trade rich relativ
The Reverse Repo Facility, Explained Without the Jargon
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 The overnight reverse repurchase facility allows money market funds and similar institutions to lend cash to the central bank overnight, secure
The Treasury General Account Is a Liquidity Valve Hiding in Plain Sight
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 The United States Treasury holds its operating cash in an account at the Federal Reserve rather than at a commercial bank. This arrangement has
The Reserve Currency Clock and the Problem With Counting It
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 A frequently circulated chart shows a sequence of dominant currencies, Portuguese, Spanish, Dutch, French, British, and American, each holding
Debt Jubilees Are Older Than Debt Markets
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Recorded debt cancellation predates recorded interest rates. Mesopotamian rulers issued proclamations voiding agricultural debts at intervals,
Demographics Are Destiny, With a Forty-Year Lag
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 The number of people who will turn forty in 2065 is already fixed by the number of people born in 2025. This is close to the only variable in m
The Capex Supercycle and Why Underinvestment Shows Up a Decade Late
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Building a mine takes roughly a decade from discovery to first production. Building a refinery, a smelter, or major grid infrastructure operate
Dispersion: When the Index Is Calmer Than Its Parts
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 An index is a portfolio, and the volatility of a portfolio depends on the volatility of its holdings and on how those holdings move relative to
Skew Is a Positioning Signal, Not a Fear Gauge
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Implied volatility is not a single number. It varies by strike, and the shape of that variation carries information that the headline level doe
Zero-Day Options and the Argument About Intraday Volatility
2 min read · Updated Jul 2026 Options expiring on the day they are traded have grown from a curiosity to a substantial share of index options volume. The structural change i